A bonus isn't automatically good value just because it's free money on the surface. Clearing it requires betting a defined volume, and that betting has a statistically expected cost attached — the house edge doesn't pause just because you're chasing a bonus. Expected Value (EV) is the tool for cutting through the marketing and asking whether an offer is a net positive on average, or a net negative dressed up as a gift.
The calculation, step by step
The estimate starts from the qualifying wager — the total betting volume the wagering requirement demands, adjusted for game contribution. Not every bet counts equally toward clearing a bonus: many casinos count slots at 100% of the wager toward the requirement but count table games like blackjack at a much smaller fraction, since those games have a lower house edge and would otherwise be a favorite route to farm easy bonuses.
Once the contribution-adjusted wager is known, it's multiplied by the game's house edge — 100% minus the game's RTP — to produce the expected loss from all that required betting. Subtract that expected loss from the bonus amount granted, and the result is the bonus's expected value. A positive result means the offer is +EV on average: the bonus is worth more than the betting is expected to cost. A negative result means the opposite — the wagering cost is expected to outweigh the bonus over time.
Why RTP and game choice matter as much as the bonus itself
Because the calculation hinges on house edge, the game you use to clear the wagering requirement matters just as much as the bonus size. Clearing a $50 bonus on a low-edge blackjack variant costs far less in expected losses than clearing the same bonus on a high-edge slot — assuming the casino's contribution rules even allow low-edge games to count meaningfully toward the requirement in the first place.
EV is an average, not a guarantee
It's worth being precise about what EV actually tells you: it's the expected outcome averaged over many repetitions, not a promise about any single session. A -EV bonus can still pay off due to short-term variance, and a +EV bonus can still lose money in a bad run. EV tells you which side the math favors over time — it doesn't remove the swings along the way.
Turning terms into a number
Edge Wagering runs exactly this calculation: enter the bonus, the wagering multiple, which basis it applies to, the game's RTP, and its contribution percentage, and it returns the expected value directly — turning a page of promotional terms into a single number you can actually use to decide whether an offer is worth pursuing.